Airbus e United cercano slot di consegna del 321neo


kenadams

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Qualche giorno fa United ha dichiarato pubblicamente che il 737-10 non rientra più nei propri piani flotta: se sia un bluff per avere sconti e garanzie da Boeing, un'autentica ricerca di alternative, o un mix delle due lo scopriremo in futuro.

Nel frattempo, tuttavia, trapela una notizia importante: Airbus Hunts for Delivery Slots to Win Over Key Boeing Customer (msn.com)

Airbus starebbe contattando lessor e alcuni vettori nel proprio libro ordini nella speranza di liberare (dietro compenso) slot di consegna del 321neo per cederli a United, che a sua volta si starebbe preparando ad annullare l'ordine che ha per 277 737-10 (più 200 opzioni).
 
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kenadams

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Boeing qualcosa ci rimetterà sicuramente: non sarà facile per Airbus trovare slot. Va tenuto conto che -- in una situazione come questa, anche con tutta la buona volontà che Airbus può avere -- al consorzio europeo non conviene fare grandi sconti.
Secondo me il più verosimile degli scenari è che:
- United rinegozi l'ordine con Boeing (attualmente quasi 400 737 MAX di varie versioni ancora da consegnare).
- In cambio di un bello sconto "rinunci" ad annullare tutta la parte di ordine relativa alla serie -10 (277 esemplari).
- United ottenga specifiche garanzie, soprattutto in relazione alle consegne di MAX 8 e MAX 9 che sono già in ritardo ma almeno sono certificati dall'FAA.
- La misura complessiva dell'ordine sia ridotta di un ordine di grandezza fra il 20 e il 40%.
- United ordini un numero congruo di A321 per rimediare al taglio di 737, ma questi arrivino non prima di 5 anni.
- Comunque non vi siano cambiamenti significativi nelle consegne previste fra il 2024 e il 2027 con ambedue i produttori, perché è veramente difficile salvo miracoli.

[FANTAVIAZIONE/] Tutto questo a meno che Indigo Partners, della quale parlavamo or ora in altro thread e che ha in ordine centinaia di 321neo destinati a Wizzair, decida di...[/FANTAVIAZIONE]
 

kenadams

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13 Agosto 2007
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Concordo.
Anche secondo me, se dovesse veramente succedere, MOL non si farà sfuggire l'occasione per fare un buon affare.
MOL ha paradossalmente molto meno potere negoziale di United, American, Delta, Allegiant, Turkish e molti altri vettori che hanno Airbus in flotta. Chi ha Airbus già in flotta può fare la voce grossa, ma MOL? Il 737 ha un libro ordini enorme: l'importante per Boeing è riuscire a far certificare il MAX 10 e prendere tempo con un po' di sconti e tante garanzie a chi è già in libro ordini. E se United dovesse annullare 200 ordini, ci sarà comunque la fila per accaparrarsi eventuali slot liberati nel triennio 2025-2027.
 
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Farfallina

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MOL ha paradossalmente molto meno potere negoziale di United, American, Delta, Allegiant, Turkish e molti altri vettori che hanno Airbus in flotta. Chi ha Airbus già in flotta può fare la voce grossa, ma MOL? Il 737 ha un libro ordini enorme: l'importante per Boeing è riuscire a far certificare il MAX 10 e prendere tempo con un po' di sconti e tante garanzie a chi è già in libro ordini. E se United dovesse annullare 200 ordini, ci sarà comunque la fila per accaparrarsi eventuali slot liberati nel triennio 2025-2027.
MOL ha Airbus family con Lauda (28), sono numeri ridotti (5% circa) ma non è novello.
 
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andsom

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Non li ha comprati o presi in leasing, se li è semplicemente ritrovati sul groppone annettendo Lauda motion. E per ora gli fa comodo così.
In realtà uno dei motivi per l’acquisto di Lauda era proprio far entrare una flotta Airbus nel perimetro deli gruppo e poter poi sfruttarlo per negoziazioni successive.
La diversificazione del ‘OEM era proprio alla base dell’affare.
Ci aveva prova con COMAC ma quella era davvero difficile da credere.
 
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OneShot

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Quest’inverno MoL aveva parlato di trattative con Airbus, ma alla fine ha ceduto ai saldi di Seattle. A sto punto quella manciata di vecchi CEO potrebbero tranquillamente essere sostituiti con i 737 man mano che arrivano consegne nuove.
 
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belumosi

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A questo giro le compagnie, tutte, sono in palese svantaggio rispetto ai costruttori.
Airbus ha venduto la produzione di NB fino al 2030. Chi non vuole aerei a babbo morto, deve quindi rivolgersi a Boeing, che a sua volta sta quindi acquisendo ordini a dispetto dei problemi del MAX.
Le compagnie sono quindi costrette a mangiare una di queste due minestre o a restare a bocca asciutta. Una situazione storicamente inedita e probabilmente destinata a peggiorare nei prossimi anni.
 

Farfallina

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23 Marzo 2009
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A questo giro le compagnie, tutte, sono in palese svantaggio rispetto ai costruttori.
Airbus ha venduto la produzione di NB fino al 2030. Chi non vuole aerei a babbo morto, deve quindi rivolgersi a Boeing, che a sua volta sta quindi acquisendo ordini a dispetto dei problemi del MAX.
Le compagnie sono quindi costrette a mangiare una di queste due minestre o a restare a bocca asciutta. Una situazione storicamente inedita e probabilmente destinata a peggiorare nei prossimi anni.
Corretta valutazione, alla fine la concentrazione su due fornitori porterà un duopolio che non aiuterà il mercato. Il punto è che Boeing e Airbus hanno necessità di fare cassetta da una riduzione della concorrenza perché i vari antitrust altrimenti avrebbero da valutare...
 

Farfallina

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Si parla anche che MOL abbia dato rassicurazioni a Boeing che le macchine rifiutate da altri le prenderà lui.... facendo lui il prezzo as usual.
 

kenadams

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Si parla anche che MOL abbia dato rassicurazioni a Boeing che le macchine rifiutate da altri le prenderà lui.... facendo lui il prezzo as usual.
Secondo me stavolta il prezzo non lo farà lui. Boeing è già in ritardo (e di molto) con le consegne a Ryanair. Eventuali ordini cancellati da altri serviranno a recuperare il ritardo e consegnare a Ryanair aerei già ordinati a prezzo già fissato. Per il resto, la penuria di mezzi è tale che ci sarà concorrenza fra vettori per accaparrarsi eventuali slot di consegna liberati nel periodo 2026-2029.
 
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belumosi

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Pazzesco. UA nel 2024 si aspetta di ricevere da Boeing 102 (centodue) aerei in meno del previsto: 63 invece di 165.

United expects 102 fewer aircraft deliveries in 2024
By Pilar Wolfsteller1 March 2024


United Airlines expects to receive from Boeing 102 fewer new aircraft in 2024 than contractually agreed, forcing the airline to recalculate its fleet plan and delivery expectations for the coming years.
The Chicago-based carrier said in a 29 February filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it is now counting on the US manufacturer to deliver 63 aircraft to it in 2024, rather than the 165 it had previously been banking on.
Those delivery delays, United says, are a major risk to its ability to execute its “United Next” fleet transformation initiative, and to its overall operation.
The delays come as Boeing deals with numerous quality issues involving its 737 Max, for which the Federal Aviation Administration has put the manufacturer on notice. United, for its part, has said it is looking for means of heading off the impact of receiving fewer new jets, such as by relying more on other types and by delaying aircraft retirements.

“If [United] is unable to acquire additional aircraft at acceptable prices from Boeing or Airbus, or if Boeing or Airbus fails to make timely deliveries of aircraft… or to provide adequate support for its products, including with respect to the aircraft subject to firm orders under our United Next plan, the company’s operations could be materially and adversely affected,” United says.


United’s purchase contracts with Boeing call for the airline to welcome 80 new 737 Max 10 to its fleet in 2024, 71 in 2025 and 126 in the following years through 2033. United has now struck all those figures from its fleet plan, saying, “Due to the delay in the certification of the 737 Max 10 aircraft, we are unable to accurately forecast the expected delivery period”.
United anticipates those issues will continue ”during the next couple of years” and ”may impact our financial position, results of operations and cash flows”.
According to Cirium fleets data, United operates a 164-strong 737 Max fleet, of which 85 are Max 8s and 79 are Max 9s.
The airline had been expecting to receive 43 more Max 8s this year, but has now reduced that number to 37, with another six of those now expected to be delivered in 2025.


For the Max 9 model, 34 were contractually agreed for delivery to United in 2024. The company now expects to receive 19 of those this year and 15 next year.

Screenshot 2024-03-01 151053

Source: United Airlines
United Airlines’ contracted delivery timetable, versus its actual delivery expectations, as of 29 February 2024

United is banking on Boeing’s still-not-certificated 737 Max 10, holding orders for 277 of the largest variant of the Max family.
Boeing has long said it expects to have the Max 10 certificated after certificating the smallest variant, the Max 7. But both types are badly delayed, and this year Boeing revealed that it needs another year to achieve the Max 7’s certification due to a required anti-ice system redesign – a delay leaving the Max 10’s timeline more unclear.
Meanwhile, Boeing’s production of its two certificated Max models – Max 8s and Max 9s – slowed significantly in recent weeks amid a new FAA quality audit.

OTHER HOLD UPS
United’s 787 Dreamliner delivery dates have also slightly shifted. The airline previously expected to receive eight of the widebodies in 2024 and 18 next year, but now anticipates acquiring seven this year and 18 in 2025. Its remaining 125 787s on order with Boeing will likely be delivered after 2025, the airline says.


United also expects Airbus will be late with deliveries, but to a lesser extent.
Previously, the airline expected to receive 26 A321neos this year, 38 in 2025 and 62 between 2025 and 2033. Now, it anticipates receiving one fewer in 2024, 24 next year and 77 in the following years. United’s 50 on-order A321XLRs have also shifted to later delivery dates, with the company now saying the vast majority of those will join the fleet after 2025.
Earlier this month, United chief financial officer Mike Leskinen told investors that the company is “deeply disappointed” in Boeing’s delivery delays, and will rely on “more Max 9 and A321 aircraft” to fulfill its capacity commitments. It also plans to “extend the life” of some aircraft.
Boeing continues struggling with quality and safety issues, which again came into stark relief following an accident in early January that led the FAA to temporarily ground Max 9s with mid-cabin door plugs – 171 jets total worldwide.


That incident involved the in-flight blow out of a door plug on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9, causing rapid decompression.The pilots were able to land and no passengers or crew were seriously injured. United cancelled hundreds of flights as its Max 9s underwent inspections.

 

East End Ave

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su e giu' sull'atlantico...
Pazzesco. UA nel 2024 si aspetta di ricevere da Boeing 102 (centodue) aerei in meno del previsto: 63 invece di 165.

United expects 102 fewer aircraft deliveries in 2024
By Pilar Wolfsteller1 March 2024


United Airlines expects to receive from Boeing 102 fewer new aircraft in 2024 than contractually agreed, forcing the airline to recalculate its fleet plan and delivery expectations for the coming years.
The Chicago-based carrier said in a 29 February filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it is now counting on the US manufacturer to deliver 63 aircraft to it in 2024, rather than the 165 it had previously been banking on.
Those delivery delays, United says, are a major risk to its ability to execute its “United Next” fleet transformation initiative, and to its overall operation.
The delays come as Boeing deals with numerous quality issues involving its 737 Max, for which the Federal Aviation Administration has put the manufacturer on notice. United, for its part, has said it is looking for means of heading off the impact of receiving fewer new jets, such as by relying more on other types and by delaying aircraft retirements.

“If [United] is unable to acquire additional aircraft at acceptable prices from Boeing or Airbus, or if Boeing or Airbus fails to make timely deliveries of aircraft… or to provide adequate support for its products, including with respect to the aircraft subject to firm orders under our United Next plan, the company’s operations could be materially and adversely affected,” United says.


United’s purchase contracts with Boeing call for the airline to welcome 80 new 737 Max 10 to its fleet in 2024, 71 in 2025 and 126 in the following years through 2033. United has now struck all those figures from its fleet plan, saying, “Due to the delay in the certification of the 737 Max 10 aircraft, we are unable to accurately forecast the expected delivery period”.
United anticipates those issues will continue ”during the next couple of years” and ”may impact our financial position, results of operations and cash flows”.
According to Cirium fleets data, United operates a 164-strong 737 Max fleet, of which 85 are Max 8s and 79 are Max 9s.
The airline had been expecting to receive 43 more Max 8s this year, but has now reduced that number to 37, with another six of those now expected to be delivered in 2025.


For the Max 9 model, 34 were contractually agreed for delivery to United in 2024. The company now expects to receive 19 of those this year and 15 next year.

Screenshot 2024-03-01 151053

Source: United Airlines
United Airlines’ contracted delivery timetable, versus its actual delivery expectations, as of 29 February 2024

United is banking on Boeing’s still-not-certificated 737 Max 10, holding orders for 277 of the largest variant of the Max family.
Boeing has long said it expects to have the Max 10 certificated after certificating the smallest variant, the Max 7. But both types are badly delayed, and this year Boeing revealed that it needs another year to achieve the Max 7’s certification due to a required anti-ice system redesign – a delay leaving the Max 10’s timeline more unclear.
Meanwhile, Boeing’s production of its two certificated Max models – Max 8s and Max 9s – slowed significantly in recent weeks amid a new FAA quality audit.

OTHER HOLD UPS
United’s 787 Dreamliner delivery dates have also slightly shifted. The airline previously expected to receive eight of the widebodies in 2024 and 18 next year, but now anticipates acquiring seven this year and 18 in 2025. Its remaining 125 787s on order with Boeing will likely be delivered after 2025, the airline says.


United also expects Airbus will be late with deliveries, but to a lesser extent.
Previously, the airline expected to receive 26 A321neos this year, 38 in 2025 and 62 between 2025 and 2033. Now, it anticipates receiving one fewer in 2024, 24 next year and 77 in the following years. United’s 50 on-order A321XLRs have also shifted to later delivery dates, with the company now saying the vast majority of those will join the fleet after 2025.
Earlier this month, United chief financial officer Mike Leskinen told investors that the company is “deeply disappointed” in Boeing’s delivery delays, and will rely on “more Max 9 and A321 aircraft” to fulfill its capacity commitments. It also plans to “extend the life” of some aircraft.
Boeing continues struggling with quality and safety issues, which again came into stark relief following an accident in early January that led the FAA to temporarily ground Max 9s with mid-cabin door plugs – 171 jets total worldwide.


That incident involved the in-flight blow out of a door plug on an Alaska Airlines 737 Max 9, causing rapid decompression.The pilots were able to land and no passengers or crew were seriously injured. United cancelled hundreds of flights as its Max 9s underwent inspections.

Storia triste e ampiamente nota; quando potresti mangiare il mercato ma non ti danno le posate…