Coronavirus: riflessi sul mondo dell’aviazione

[East End Ave]

AE si porta avanti, non si sa mai:

Cinque anni. Forza signori chi offre di più. Aer Lingus ha infatti comunicato che fornirà un voucher ai suoi clienti che scadrà tra 5 anni.

La situazione mondiale legata al coronavirus con l’inevitabile fermo (o quasi) del trasporto aereo deve aver fatto scatenare le compagnie aeree, che attraverso l’emissione del voucher tentano di tenere agganciato il consumatore. La ripresa dei voli internazionali appare ancora distante e sarà senza dubbio limitata nei posti.

Intanto l’altro irlandese Michael O’Leary ha spiegato che è impensabile pensare di fare partire gli aerei con il 60% di load factor. Ma in qualche modo bisognerà riaprire gli hangar e riattivare gli slot. I vettori si stanno attrezzando.

Per questo Aer Lingus ha voluto anticipare tutti e lanciare il voucher a scadenza quinquennale. Un’azione da contropiede.

Qualcosa che assomiglia più a un investimento che al futuro del trasporto aereo. (r.v.)

TTG

 

[leerit]

New York, 21 apr 18:54 - (Agenzia Nova) - La compagnia Air Canada ha annunciato la sospensione dei voli tra il Canada e gli Stati Uniti a partire da domenica prossima, 26 aprile, a causa della pandemia di coronavirus. La compagnia di bandiera di Ottawa, si legge in una nota, prevede di riprendere i collegamenti con gli Stati Uniti il prossimo 22 maggio. La decisione giunge dopo dopo l'accordo stipulato tra i governi dei due paesi per estendere le restrizioni alle frontiere di altri 30 giorni a partire da oggi.

(Nys) © Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata

 

[leerit]

Pechino, 22 apr 09:39 - (Agenzia Nova) - Il numero di viaggi giornalieri da parte di passeggeri sugli aerei in Cina ha raggiunto quota 494.400, con un aumento del 7,9 per cento rispetto a marzo. Lo ha riferito oggi l'Amministrazione dell'aviazione civile cinese (Caac). "Il numero di voli giornalieri è aumentato dell'un per cento da marzo, arrivando a 6.586 al giorno, pari a circa il 41,6 percento dello stesso periodo dell'anno scorso", ha spiegato oggi in conferenza stampa Jin Junhao, funzionario della Caac. La scorsa settimana (15-21 aprile) il numero dei passeggeri del trasporto aereo giornaliero è aumentato del 15,8 per cento da marzo. Inoltre, il numero medio di voli nazionali ha raggiunto quota 6.993 al giorno, mostrando una crescita del sette percento rispetto a marzo, secondo i dati Caac. A causa dell'epidemia di Covid-19, la Cina ha registrato un forte calo del numero di viaggi e voli di passeggeri aerei a partire dal 23 gennaio. Il punto più basso è stato toccato il 13 febbraio scorso, con il traffico aereo giornaliero che è precipitato del 93,2 per cento rispetto a prima che scoppiasse l'epidemia di coronavirus nel paese. Mentre la Cina è riuscita ad appiattire la curva, il suo settore dell'aviazione civile ha iniziato a riprendere le operazioni alla fine di febbraio. A marzo, l'aviazione civile cinese ha registrato in media 458.300 viaggi aerei al giorno, con una crescita del 69,8 per cento da febbraio. A partire dal 20 aprile, la Cina ha organizzato un totale di 11 voli temporanei e ha riportato a casa 2.009 cittadini cinesi da paesi come Regno Unito, Stati Uniti, Italia e Spagna, fra cui 1.734 studenti cinesi all'estero. (Cip) © Agenzia Nova - Riproduzione riservata

 

[13900]

Assaia, una societa' di AI e big data, ha creato il progetto #rebootaviation.

Sostanzialmente una mappa che segue l'andamento dei voli giorno per giorno:

Analysis
The data as shown by the interactive map above provides some interesting insights into the relationship between active Corona cases in different countries and the reaction of the aviation industry.

In most countries in Asia and Europe airport capacity has declined as the number of active Corona cases has increased. This can be seen both through circle colours being mainly orange and the shrinking of circles over time.

South Korea has been praised widely in the way in which they managed to contain the number of Corona cases. As a result, we see that they have started increasing airport capacity over the last period.

A similar effect might also be expected for Chinese airports. If we look at them individually, it seems that initially they added capacity but then decreased it again somewhat while the number of Corona cases stayed mostly stable. This data supports the popular opinion that China might have been a bit too optimistic with regards to how the demand for air travel would return once borders and airports open again.

In Europe, many airlines have cut up to 100% of their capacity which is very visible in the map. As we are currently reaching the stage where the growth in the number of Corona cases for some Western European countries like Italy, Spain and the Netherlands are starting to slow down, it will be interesting to see how the aviation industry will react to that and how much time-lag we will observe between the moment of a flattening growth curve and a take-up in capacity.

It will also be interesting to see if recovery patterns from some Asian countries will be applicable to other geographical regions. As the pandemic moves further West, it can be seen that the impact of the virus on capacity in Northern America has been limited until now. The initial capacity cuts due to loss of flights to Europe and Asia are not represented in our data range. From that moment onwards capacity has generally remained stable. However, as Trump has announced that all domestic flights might be grounded to stop the spread of the virus throughout the US, we expect to see a big decline in capacity over the next few days and weeks.

Qui la mappa: https://rebootaviation.com/

 

[East End Ave]

Si cercano soldi...e penso che queste azioni andranno rapidamente a ruba...penso un ottimo investimento adesso, stante che ho letto che il rimbalzo del 2021 sara' il piu' importante della storia:

UAL to sell 39.2 million shares of common stock to raise capital

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. has announced an underwritten public offering of 39,250,000 shares of its common stock, subject to market conditions and other factors. Morgan Stanley and Barclays are acting as the underwriters of the offering. The Company has also granted to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 3,925,000 additional shares. The proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

 

[AZ209]

Assaia, una societa' di AI e big data, ha creato il progetto #rebootaviation.

Sostanzialmente una mappa che segue l'andamento dei voli giorno per giorno:
Qui la mappa: https://rebootaviation.com/

Assaia (che conosco abbastanza bene) e' una societa' che fornisce dati agli aeroporti e compagnie aeree sulle operazioni di rampa/turnaround grazie alle videocamere installate sopra ai parcheggi degli aeromobili. Non ha mai fornito dati sulla capacita' e l'effettiva operativita' dei voli visto che non ne ha la competenza e conoscenza. Probabilmente sono informazioni fornite da Cirium o OAG.

Cirium sta fornendo una dashboard molto piu' dettagliata sull'andamento quotidiano, per aeroporto, per compagnia aerea e per singolo volo, fornendo anche una panoramica a 72 ore future. Molte sono le discrepanze fra voli schedulati e voli effetivamente cancellati sul giorno. Certe compagnie tipo KLM se ne fregano di pubblicare schedulati aggiornati facendo incacchiare non poco certi aeroporti incluso Schiphol.

Cmq grazie per aver fornito il link.

 

[leerit]

Delta Air Lines, the biggest and most profitable U.S. airline, lost $534 million in the first quarter, a setback that will appear trivial when the full force of the pandemic is revealed in the current quarter.

Delta warned Wednesday that revenue during the April-through-June quarter, typically a period of harried travel, will plummet by 90% compared with last year, when there were no government travel restrictions and flights were full.

"These are truly unprecedented times for all of us," CEO Ed Bastian said.

Delta is the first U.S. carrier to detail the damage that began to emerge in at the tail end of the first quarter, although United Airlines said Monday that it would record a pretax loss of $2.1 billion, confirming what most had suspected.

The focus now at Delta and other airlines is to hunker down, cut costs, and borrow billions of dollars needed to ride out the pandemic. The fate of Delta and other airlines will depend on whether that is a matter of months, or years.

Industry leaders just weeks ago talked of a slump that would be followed by a sharp rebound once the public felt that the outbreak was under control. They're now bracing for a much more painful and drawn out recovery.

Flights within the United States in the past week have averaged about 12 passengers each, according to trade group Airlines for America.

And there are already 75% fewer flights than is typical.

Delta is now paying out more in refunds for cancelled flights than it receives from new bookings. At the end of March, it was burning through $100 million a day, though it hopes to cut that rate in half before July.

With passenger traffic roughly 5% of year-ago levels, Delta is taking an ax to its schedule, cutting passenger-carrying capacity in the second quarter by 85%, with the deepest cuts on international routes. Delta has parked more than 650 planes, closed airport lounges and offered unpaid leave of up to a year — 37,000 employees, more than one-third of Delta's work force, have accepted.

Delta will get $5.4 billion in grants and loans from the federal government to cover payroll costs through September. What happens to employees after the federal money runs out isn't clear, but Delta expects to be a smaller company after the pandemic subsides.

The airline could apply for $4.6 billion more in federal loans. It has raised $5.4 billion from bank loans, aircraft sale-leasebacks and other measures and drawn down $3 billion from earlier credit lines.

For the first quarter, the Atlanta carrier's pretax loss, not counting adjustments to investments, was 51 cents per share, matching Wall Street expectations, according to a survey by FactSet.

Revenue dropped by $1.9 billion, or 18%, to $8.59 billion, well below industry analysts projections of $9.18 billion, and Delta's weakest since early 2013. The decline was in every part of the plane — revenue fell in both premium seating like business class and in the main cabin.

The average flight was 73.1% full, down nearly 10 percentage points from a year earlier, but that figure covers the entire quarter — there were far more empty seats in the second half of March.

About the only bright spot for Delta was the fuel bill, which fell 19%, a savings of $383 million. But like people who are stuck in their homes during the pandemic, Delta isn't taking full advantage of plunging energy prices because it is canceling so many flights.

Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc., which have dropped 60% since the start of the year, are down slightly before the opening bell.

https://nbc16.com/news/coronavirus/delta-loses-534-million-in-1q-much-bigger-losses-looming

 

[Dancrane]

Anche Air Mauritius finisce in amministrazione. Fa specie vedere che aveva dato in leasing a South African Airways due A350 che avrebbe dovuto ricevere nei mesi scorsi

https://onemileatatime.com/air-mauritius-administration/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook

 

[Edoardo]

Anche Air Mauritius finisce in amministrazione. Fa specie vedere che aveva dato in leasing a South African Airways due A350 che avrebbe dovuto ricevere nei mesi scorsi

https://onemileatatime.com/air-mauritius-administration/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook

Aggiugo il comunicato stampa:

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aero...laced-under-activity-6658699477907488769-cLTJ

 

[East End Ave]

Il punto della CNN sulla situazione aviazione civile USA, molto interessante e, purtroppo, con pessimi dati e ancor peggiori previsioni...


New York (CNN Business)The US airline industry is in a crisis unlike any it has ever seen. On Wednesday investors will start finding out just how bad it has been, and what to expect going forward.

Delta Air Lines is set to be the first airline to report first-quarter results Wednesday morning, in what promises to be a miserable quarter for the industry. The coronavirus pandemic caused demand for air travel to fall to "essentially zero" according to United Airlines.
Analysts surveyed by Refinitiv expect airline earnings to drop more than 200% for the first quarter. Airlines are forecast to report billions of dollars in losses, compared to a combined $1.8 billion first-quarter profit a year ago. That decline dwarfs forecasts of a 13% to 14% drop in earnings for the S&P 500 as a whole.
United has already warned investors that itsx first-quarter net loss will come to $2.1 billion, while its operating loss will be $1 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet project operating losses of at least $2 billion for the entire industry, which would be the first industry-wide quarterly loss in eight years. Every airline is expected to report a loss.
It's a stunning reversal for an industry that had been enjoying the greatest period of profitability in its history.
Consolidation in the industry, combined with a strong economy, had boosted travel -- producing packed airplanes and strong profits. None of the four major airlines that control 80% of the US market -- American (AAL), Delta (DAL), United (UAL) and Southwest (LUV) -- has reported even a single quarter of losses in more than five years.

Worst crisis in history

Airlines are no stranger to business troubles. Three of the current major carriers -- American, Delta and United -- formed out of bankruptcies and mergers earlier in this century. But the current drop in air travel is far worse than anything the industry has experienced before, including the period after the September 11, 2001, terrorist attack or the Great Recession of 2008-2009.
But as bad as the situation for airlines was in the first quarter, it was nowhere near the bottom.
Airlines continued strong in January other than some flights to and from China. Domestic flights continued as normal for February and early March. Then the bottom fell out of the air travel business.
The number of people being screened by the TSA at US airports is down 95% so far in April compared with last year, after a 51% drop in March. Airlines are already slashing their schedules in May by as much as 90% and are warning that the depressed level of travel will continue into 2021, at least.

Help is on the way

Congress approved $25 billion in grants and low interest loans for the industry on the condition that airlines not implement any involuntary layoffs, furloughs or paycuts for their 750,000 employees through the end of September. The first checks from that pool, totaling $2.9 billion, went out Monday. Another $25 billion in federal loans will also become available to airlines.

But, given the depths of the problems, and the long road ahead for the airlines to recover, staff cuts and smaller airlines offering passengers less choice could come as soon as this fall.
Investors are looking for information on airlines' long-term plans along with the bad first-quarter news, as well as any guidance on the second quarter and beyond.
The industry has a "forthcoming October day of reckoning," wrote JPMorgan Chase airline analyst Jamie Baker in a recent note.
"We expect robust discussion on how much smaller fleets need to emerge post crisis," Baker added. "This of course will inevitably lead to questions on how aggressive managements will be in downsizing labor on October 1 when the government handcuffs are unlocked. Unfortunately, we simply don't see any way for most US airlines to avoid massive layoffs."

 

[leerit]

"Probabilmente entro metà maggio pubblicheremo le linee guida a cui stiamo lavorando" sulla ripartenza dei viaggi all'interno dell'Unione europea. Ci saranno dei "principi orizzontali da rispettare", con dettagli diversi a seconda della modalità di trasporto. "Certamente il distanziamento sociale, il fatto di dover indossare dei dispositivi protettivi, così come la disinfezione di aeroporti e velivoli, saranno parte delle nostre linee guida". Lo ha annunciato la commissaria ai trasporti, Adina Valean, durante un forum organizzato dalla Commissione europea in diretta sui social. "Dobbiamo essere sicuri che tutti i criteri sanitari siano rispettati prima di allentare le misure di qualsiasi tipo legate agli spostamenti - ha detto Valean - questa crisi sanitaria continuerà a lungo, finché non troveremo un trattamento o un vaccino. Credo che le misure che hanno provato la loro efficacia, come il distanziamento sociale, continueranno a essere rispettate in un modo o nell'altro". "Penso sia giusto dire che la pandemia durerà più della chiusura dei confini", ha affermato la commissaria.

ANSA

 

[OneShot]

Anche Air Mauritius finisce in amministrazione. Fa specie vedere che aveva dato in leasing a South African Airways due A350 che avrebbe dovuto ricevere nei mesi scorsi

https://onemileatatime.com/air-mauritius-administration/?utm_source=BoardingArea&utm_medium=facebook

Potrebbe prenderli Alitalia per rimodernare la flotta di lungo raggio (cit.)

 

[Dancrane]

Interessante sondaggio condotto da IATA (edit: questo il link: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-04-21-01/): il 40% degli intervistati sostiene che riprenderà a volare dopo almeno sei mesi dal cessato allarme, il 69% lo farà quando ne avrà nuovamente la possibilità economica

https://monkeymiles.boardingarea.co...ait-6-months-travel-post-covid-19-containment

 

[BrunoFLR]

Un bel 109%...

Inviato dal mio WAS-LX1A utilizzando Tapatalk

 

[ploncito]

Un bel 109%...

Inviato dal mio WAS-LX1A utilizzando Tapatalk

Beh sono due domande diverse, può anche essere 200%

 

[londonfog]

....le fasi di imbarco e sbarco dall’aeromobile dovranno avvenire in modo ordinato, per file, mantenendo la distanza interpersonale di un metro.

Questo e' quello su cui io sono piu' scettico. Di solito appena possibile meta' dei passeggeri si alza in piedi e cerca di prendere il bagaglio a mano dalla cappelliera. Ho sempre pensato che la maggioranza delle persone si comporti come se al primo in uscita venga dato un premio pari a 1000 volte il prezzo del biglietto

 

[kenadams]

Si cercano soldi...e penso che queste azioni andranno rapidamente a ruba...penso un ottimo investimento adesso, stante che ho letto che il rimbalzo del 2021 sara' il piu' importante della storia:

UAL to sell 39.2 million shares of common stock to raise capital

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. has announced an underwritten public offering of 39,250,000 shares of its common stock, subject to market conditions and other factors. Morgan Stanley and Barclays are acting as the underwriters of the offering. The Company has also granted to the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to 3,925,000 additional shares. The proceeds from the offering will be used for general corporate purposes.

Mossa intelligente di United. Il titolo - secondo me - è destinato secondo me a scendere ancora (nel breve periodo, nel lungo è un buon investimento), e fa bene il vettore a muoversi rapidamente. E' normale che i mercati si muovano.

Le prospettive di lungo periodo non sono drammatiche per nessuna delle major americane: e nel breve ci sono ancora ampie opportunità di raccogliere capitali. Immagino che presto vedremo Chase, Citi e American Express acquistare in anticipo grosse quantità di miglia premio dai rispettivi vettori di riferimento (United, American e Delta).

 

[EI-MAW]

Questo e' quello su cui io sono piu' scettico. Di solito appena possibile meta' dei passeggeri si alza in piedi e cerca di prendere il bagaglio a mano dalla cappelliera. Ho sempre pensato che la maggioranza delle persone si comporti come se al primo in uscita venga dato un premio pari a 1000 volte il prezzo del biglietto

Ti posso dire che mai come ora la gente rispetti anche la più piccola cosa che venga detta loro e ascoltino tutti gli annunci. Salgono, si siedono, nessuno lascia il posto durante il volo, nemmeno per andare al bagno e scendono.
Per AZ è in vigore già da qualche settimana uno sbarco controllato dopo uno specifico annuncio. Si prega tutti di rimanere seduti e vengono chiamate 4 file alla volta. Appena uscita la comunicazione interna ho riso pensando che mai e poi mai si sarebbe riusciti in questa cosa, ma mi sono dovuto ricredere.

 

[TW 843]

Fallisce Air Mauritius:


Air Mauritius declares insolvency, enters administration

After halting all its domestic and international flights due to the coronavirus crisis, Air Mauritius is expecting not to meet its financial obligations in the foreseeable future. On April 22, the Mauritian flag carrier announced entering into voluntary administration.

Air Mauritius was facing financial troubles even before the coronavirus outbreak. But the COVID-19 pandemic made things even worse and has led to a “complete erosion of the company’s revenue base”, the airline outlined in its statement.

The uncertainty surrounding the resumption of international air traffic, and indications it would be no sooner than in late 2020, did not help it either. In response to the outbreak, the airline has grounded all its international and domestic flights.

However, the virus was not the only cause to blame. In the company’s financial statement for 2018/2019 (for the period up to March 31, 2019), Air Mauritius management recognized that the company’s business model was no longer sustainable, as the company posted over €21 million loss. In the subsequent nine months, April to December 2019, it topped the loss by an additional €14 million.

In an attempt to turn the airline around, the company’s board established a Transformation Steering Committee in January 2020.

Air Mauritius had a fleet of a total of 13 aircraft: 3 ATR 72, 2 Airbus A319, 4 Airbus A330, 2 A340, and 2 A350XWB, planespotters.net data indicates. At the end of its last financial year, it flew to 22 destinations Africa, Asia, Australia and Europe

 

[leerit]

RYANAIR boss Michael O’Leary has warned the low-budget carrier won’t fly if the Irish government require the middle seat to remain empty.

The airline chief said he expected 80 per cent of the carrier’s schedule to resume by September if flights in Europe started again in early July.

But he warned that that wouldn’t happen if “some entirely ineffective social distancing measures like having middle seats empty because if middle seats are empty we’re not returning to flying at all.”

He also revealed he has made clear to the Irish government that if they wanted to implement such a restriction they could foot the bill or Ryanair would not fly.

The outspoken airline boss told The Financial Times: “We can’t make money on 66 per cent load factors”.

“Even if you do that, the middle seat doesn’t deliver any social distancing, so it’s kind of an idiotic idea that doesn’t achieve anything anyway.

https://www.google.it/amp/s/www.the...hael-oleary-ryanair-wont-fly-middle-seat/amp/