Re: Brexit e possibili riperscussioni sul mondo dell'aviazione
Mi dispiace ma il fatto che dica che abbia votato Remain ma poi se ne esce con certe dichiarazioni alla Davis o Rees-Mogg ne fa proprio un closet brexiter per definizione. Ovvero uno che ufficialmente non lo e', ma privatamente (closet) pensa l'opposto.
Utilizzare tematiche che sono le stesse dei leavers ("UE e' quella che rischia di piu', non noi") mi fanno cadere le braccia.
Ok, mi sto guardando il video su Parliamentlive.tv e posso dire che il cronista non ha capito praticamente nulla.
Ok, mi sono spippato l'intero video del panel governativo su Brexit e Aviazione Civile, e posso serenamente dire che potrei fare il giornalista per lo Standard meglio dell'imbrattacarte che ha scritto questo articolo. Riporto qui i punti più salienti, spero che non sia un problema se li butto giù in inglese. Se faccio un quote diretto lo metto tra virgolette.
Invitati al panel erano Walsh, Holland-Kaye di LHR, Hawking CEO di MAN airport e Drakker di Easyjet. Ho preso nota per lo più di quello che ha detto WW.
Q. What would the future be looking like on 1/4/19 without a deal?
A. It'll continue as today. Airlines will fly to Europe from their national home base. IAG has 7 AOCs and soon an 8th, it'll continue to fly to Europe as it does today, it's complexity it is used to. Bilateral agreements will need to be in place. There might be an issue with participation to EASA. There is confidence from all sides that there will be an agreement before the deadline (all agree multiple times).
Q. When is the latest for a deal?
A. Whilst we sell one year in advance I rarely look at data more tha 3 months out. He wants clarity 6 months in advance - can be by the summer, can be by October. The airline business deals with a lot of complexity "and we can keep managing this. Politicians like keeping complexity in our business and I'm sure you'll keep on doing this". The industry is used to get regulation imposed on itself with no advance warning (e.g. Liquids ban).
Q. Why is EASA important?
A. EASA has done a lot to streamline safety requirements. Don't think CAA can replace EASA in full, both for oversight and clarity, and they don't want to have to comply with different standards between UK an EU. Walsh would like clarity on EASA ASAP.
Q. How about bilateral agreements (domanda posta due volte almeno).
A. The UK has bilateral agreements with 170 countries. 35 are EU-led bilaterals, negotiated by the commission on everyone's behalf, the rest are UK-other countries bilaterals. Those won't change. The biggest EU agreement is the one with the US: "I'm confident that there is perfect alignment between US and UK on Open Skies. The US operate under the model open skies agreement which I know the UK could sign up to in a minute. There is nothing to negotiate, that's the way we operate, perfect alignment. I believe that one second after the UK leaves there will be a UK/US open skies".
Q. How about the UK-EU agreement?
A. Roughly half of our passengers are EU passengers. There will be a need for a comprehensive Air Transport Agreement (ATA) negotiated, which all parties are confident that will be reached. Without an agreement, there is still a possibility for airlines to fly from their home bases to Europe, but cabotage will be at risk. The UK government would need to agree to that, for instance it would need to agree to let Ryanair fly between the UK and the EU. When asked if only the UK government would need, WW says "Just the UK government needs to". He also says "I 've no interest in seeing Ryanair prevented from flying from the UK to the EU. It'd be a travesty, a disaster".
Q. Can UK copy EU legislation, specifically the open skies, in its legislation?
A. The UK can't copy, would need to replace the OS agreement with another one. He doesn't believe the EU-US open skies can be flipped but he believes that there is alignment between the UK and US, and the US airlines are interested. No one wants to return to Bermuda II agreement when only two airlines could access Heathrow.
Q. Would Brexit impact investment or capacity to enter new markets?
A. Aircraft purchases are made for 25 years, so no changes on that. The issues remain with APD, restrictive visa processes that aren't fit for purpose. He's not specifically concerned about Brexit: "I'll be honest, I voted Remain but life has to go on. But the issues that the UK will need to address post Brexit are APD, Visas and (elbows Holland Kaye) the exorbitant cost for expanding Heathrow".
Q. Do they see a blocker to aviation with regards to freedom of movement?
A. (All, not just WW). Aviation is an enabler of economic growth. Aviation enables trade, and freedom of movement is a separate issue from aviation.
Q. Do you think there would be an asymmetric impact between EU/UK in case of a no deal?
A. It'd be different from member state to member state. In Spain or Ireland, where tourism is 7/8% of total GDP, it'd be higher. Broadly, though, there would be simmetry, hence why they all believe there will be willingness by all parties to get to a deal. EZY mentions discussions with other countries that hint to possibilities of deal for the aviation sector.
Q. Do you expect changes in airline ownership?
A. EZY: we are already 49% EU owned, going to 51% should not be a big ask.
A. IAG: IAG already demonstrates separate ownership for countries that do not recognise the concept of EU ownership and control. This is valid for BA to prove British ownership, for IB for Spanish ownership and if needed it will be done for Aer Lingus. However, this is an industry-wide issue. At present the majority of capitals invested in aviation are American or British, and these are invested in the UK as well as Europe: so the issue of ownership is actually an European one, not just UK. This is recognised in the industry, hence why
Q. What sort of deal would you like with the EU?
A. I'd like an ATA that preserves what we have today, a liberal agreement. There is a lot of symmetry amongst airlines on this.
Q. Does he expect vetoes from countries?
A. The deal will be negotiated by the commission and shouldn't be different from other deals. He doesn't expect differences as there is symmetry.
Questo é quello che mi sono annotato. Come dico, non so cosa abbia sentito il tizio dello standard, di sicuro c'é una linea editoriale da obbedire. Ciò che ho trovato interessante, e che non sapevo, é la questione di EU ownership, ed è un peccato che sia stata menzionata solo en passant. Dove penso ci sia troppo ottimismo é sull'ATA EU/UK. Parlando di accordi con altri paesi WW ha ricordato come l'UK sia sempre stato molto aperto nel firmare accordi, mentre rallentamenti sono giunti da paesi più intenzionati a proteggere i propri campioni nazionali; mi domando cosa gli faccia pensare che così non sarà per un agreement EU/UK. Magari una mail gliela mando, se non ha niente da fare chissà che non mi risponda...